Geography of Discontent in Türkiye: Populism, Autocracy, and Voting Behavior in General Elections of 2007–2023

Abstract

This study analyzes voting behavior in Türkiye's parliamentary elections from 2007 to 2023 under the rule of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), focusing on regional disparities and rising political discontent. Using province-level data and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) estimation with region-specific interactions, the analysis identifies substantial regional variation in the determinants of electoral support for both incumbent and opposition parties. While economic growth positively influenced AKP votes—particularly in provinces in central-west Türkiye—this effect was reversed in regions like the South-east, Marmara and Aegean-Mediterranean, where economic downturns and unemployment increased support for opposition parties. Socioeconomic variables, such as educational gender gaps, agricultural economic structure, and healthcare access, also shaped voting patterns. The study further highlights the significance of spatial cleavages and identity-based dynamics, including the persistent influence of Kurdish and Alevi demographics. The analysis of the AKP's vote swing between the June and November 2015 elections shows that economic and demographic variables alone are insufficient to explain the shift; instead, increased security concerns and nationalist rhetoric appear to have played a pivotal role. These findings underscore the need to account for spatial heterogeneity and political context when analyzing voting behavior in electoral authoritarian regimes.