Power Prediction Based on Signal Decomposition and Differentiated Processing with Multi-Level Features

Abstract

As global energy demand continues to rise, accurate load forecasting has become increasingly crucial for power system operations. This study proposes a novel Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise-Fast Fourier Transform-inverted Transformer-Long Short-Term Memory (CEEMDAN-FFT-iTransformer-LSTM) methodological framework to address the challenges of component complexity and transient fluctuations in power load sequences. The framework initiates with CEEMDAN-based signal decomposition, which dissects the original load sequence into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) characterized by different temporal scales and frequencies, enabling differentiated processing of heterogeneous signal components. A subsequent application of Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) extracts discriminative frequency-domain features, thereby enriching the feature space with spectral information. The architecture employs an iTransformer module with multi-head self-attention mechanisms to capture high-frequency patterns in the most volatile IMFs, while a gated recurrent unit (LSTM) specializes in modeling low-frequency components with longer temporal dependencies. Experimental results demonstrate the proposed framework achieves superior performance with an average 80% improvement in R-squared ((Formula presented.)), 40.1% lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and 54.1% reduced Mean Squared Error (RMSE) compared to other models. This advancement provides a robust computational tool for power grid operators, enabling optimal resource dispatch through enhanced prediction accuracy to reduce operational costs. The demonstrated capability to resolve multi-scale temporal dynamics suggests potential extensions to other forecasting tasks in energy systems involving complex temporal patterns.