Maritime search and rescue probability of containment model design and simulation

Abstract

In maritime search and rescue operations, in order to improve the success rate of search and rescue, it is necessary to quickly determine the search area after target drift according to the existing accident and Marine environment information, and establish the probability of containment model, to provide information support for subsequent search and rescue planning. AP98 wind pressure drift model is used to model the drowning person at sea, and Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate the floating situation of the drowning person. A large number of initial hypothetical points were arranged, the factors affecting the drift trajectory were quantitatively analyzed, and the probability density of the hypothetical points in the search area after a certain period of time was counted to form the inclusive probability model. Matlab software is used to test the model in different scenarios to prove the effectiveness of the proposed design model.