Implications of Zoning Ordinances for Rural Utility-Scale Solar Deployment and Power System Decarbonization in the Great Lakes Region

Abstract

Local zoning ordinances across the United States can restrict development of energy infrastructure, including utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV). While ordinances may be developed for legitimate purposes to protect public health and safety, they could impede or increase costs of power sector decarbonization. We quantify the role of utility-scale solar zoning ordinances on power sector decarbonization across the Great Lakes region (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin) by integrating 2,474 unique rural zoning ordinances (covering over 90% of county subdivisions in each state) into a power system planning model. Our analysis focuses on deploying utility-scale PV on agricultural lands, where most existing solar installations in our region are located. Relative to a hypothetical counterfactual without zoning ordinances, existing zoning ordinances cause an 18% decline in utility-scale PV investment (by 8 GW) and cost (by $4.8 billion), primarily due to “silent” ordinances that implicitly block solar development by failing to address its land-use. Investment shifts from PV to energy storage (900 MW), wind (300 MW), and natural gas plants (3 GW). Starker declines in PV investment occur at the state level, with Michigan and Wisconsin seeing a 42% reduction. Our results underscore the need for planning that aligns local zoning laws with state and regional goals.