Study of coupling the age-structured contact patterns to the COVID-19 pandemic transmission

Abstract

Background:The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has raged more than 10 months and it has become a major public health concern. It is necessary to account for the intrinsic mechanisms and reveal the transmission pattern. Method: We collect detailed information of 944 COVID-19 cases in Guangdong province from January 23rd to February 16th. According to the age-structured characteristics, the population is divided into four groups such as child group (0-5 years old), adolescent group (6-19 years old), young and middle-aged group (20-64 years old), elderly group (65 and over years old). Coupling with different age-structured contact patterns, we establish a discrete age-structured COVID-19 model, obtain the basic reproduction number and final size. By Markov Chain Monte Carlo numerical method (MCMC), we identify the model parameters, fit the cumulative cases, calculate eradiation time of disease, infection peak and the peak arrival time, etc.Results: We found that the most infected people are the young and middle-aged individuals; Compared with household quarantine measure, the peak value of hospitalizations among young and middle-aged group in community mode will increase of 41%, and the peak will delay two weeks. By analyzing the proportions of the final sizes associated age groups, it is found that the elderly have a higher susceptibility, while the adolescents have a lower susceptibility. Under the household quarantine measure, if infected individuals have been confirmed in time of half a day, the peak size of hospitalizations will be further reduced, and the peak hospitalization will advance one week. The model reveals social contact patterns for impacting on COVID-19 transmission, and evaluates the effectiveness of household quarantine.