A study on influencing factors of port cargo throughput based on multi-scale geographically weighted regression

Abstract

Port cargo throughput plays a pivotal role in driving national economic growth, facilitating trade activities, and promoting urban development. This study employs a Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) model to analyse the influencing factors of port cargo throughput, with regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP), highway construction investment, waterway construction investment, total import and export volume of goods, total retail sales of consumer goods, number of port berths, and urban residents’ consumption expenditure as independent variables. Based on data collected from 43 ports across China, the research reveals the magnitude and spatial distribution characteristics of these variables’ impacts on port cargo throughput. By comparing the fitting results of the global regression model with those of local regression models, the study demonstrates that the MGWR model achieves superior local regression fitting compared to the fixed-bandwidth Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model. This research provides theoretical support for understanding the spatial heterogeneity of factors influencing port cargo throughput and offers actionable insights for policy formulation and port planning.