Wind power forecasting based on a machine learning model: considering a coastal wind farm in Zhejiang as an example

Abstract

The unpredictability and instability of wind have hindered the development and utilization of wind power. To harness wind energy and ensure a secure and stable power grid after wind power integration, precise predictions of wind power generation are imperative. Here, we apply one-year data from a coastal wind farm in Zhejiang to train a Random Forest (RF) model for predicting wind power generation. The results indicate that the RF model (mean bias (MB) 1.33) outperforms traditional linear models (MB 87.70). An evaluation of prediction-measurement bias shows a strong agreement between the RF model’s predictions and actual measurements (MB 1.33), especially when wind speeds exceed 5.7 m/s. While the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model yields less accurate results (R2 0.65) compared to using measured wind velocity data (R2 0.97) for wind power prediction, it remains acceptable as it can capture and forecast peak generating power, meeting daily management requirements. Therefore, our machine learning-based approach offers practical guidance for reducing wind power generation uncertainties. Enhancing wind velocity forecasting through the WRF model could further improve the RF model’s accuracy in predicting wind power generation. Our study also verified the future application of RF model in coastal areas of China.