Analysis and Forecast of the Use of E-Commerce in Enterprises of the European Union States

Abstract

This study analyzes the use of e-commerce by European Union enterprises. Based on an analysis of the evolution of the percentage of enterprises that perform e-commerce and the share of total turnover obtained from e-commerce, for the period of 2003–2020, a forecast for 2025 was made. These aspects were analyzed for 2015–2020 from the perspective of the Digital Economy and Society Index (DESI), highlighting the importance of e-commerce in the economic growth of each country by analyzing the share of gross domestic product (GDP) obtained from e-commerce in GDP. For studying the evolution of the indicators, a comparative analysis of the situation of individual and aggregate EU countries was performed, highlighting the evolution trends and determining the annual average growth rate indicator, used later for the short-term forecast. For the 2025 forecast, six regression models were used for the empirical estimation of the data. The results of the analysis show that the share of companies performing e-commerce and the turnover in e-sales vary significantly depending on the size of enterprises, and the results of the forecast estimate that by 2025 there will be a significant increase in e-commerce in most European countries.