Mathematical fitting model and analysis in describing Covid-19 viruses outbreak in Indonesia

Abstract

The outbreak of novel coronavirus at the end of 2019 (covid-19) has become a global concern due to its fast transmission from human-to-human. It is first time discovered in Wuhan, Hubei Province in China. In this research, the author tries to construct epidemiological model that consist of six subpopulations such as susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), isolated (Q), recovered (R), and dead (D) population. Those compartments will be analyzed to get basic reproduction number (R0). The data used in this research is secondary data that obtained from the recent study and various news report related to the covid-19 outbreak. Fitting method will be carried out to describe the virus outbreak and see the trend of the future condition based on the real observation data and the mathematical function that has been determined. The expected result of this research is that the mathematical fitting model and its analysis helping the epidemiologist and health practitioner to determine the right treatment to stop the outbreak so that the society could be back to virgin population.