The impact of geopolitical risk on agricultural commodity prices

Abstract

The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine had a detrimental effect on the global agricultural and food market and the price movements of essential commodities. In this study, we aim to investigate the effects of geopolitical risk on the prices of selected agricultural and food commodities using the linear and nonlinear ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) model. Our results show evidence of the asymmetric impact of geopolitical risk on the prices of rapeseed, sugar, sunflower oil, and wheat. The findings also show no long-term link between geopolitical risk and corn, cotton, lumber, milk, oats, rough rice, and soybean prices.