A choice-based conjoint analysis on the market potential of PHEVs and BEVs in Flanders

Abstract

In this paper, the market potential for electric vehicles (EVs) in Flanders (Belgium) is forecasted with the use of a choice-based conjoint (CBC) analysis. In May 2011, a large-scale survey was conducted (n = 1.197). The goal of the survey was twofold: estimate the market potential for (plug-in hybrid) electric vehicles in Flanders (Belgium) and formulate recommendations for the further deployment of electric vehicles within the region of Flanders. When looking at the forecasts based on the CBC experiment, in 2020, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could reach a market share of around 5% of the newly sold vehicles in Flanders. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) could have a market share of around 7%. In 2030, these figures could increase to respectively 15% and 29%. A sensitivity analysis reveals that, in order to increase the potential for (PH)EVs, the main focus should be on decreasing the purchase costs.