A Modular Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for Electric Grid Cybersecurity

Abstract

This paper presents a modular framework designed for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment of electric grid systems facing cybersecurity threats. It details various modules, such as the protection systems module, the operator module, and the attacker module, developed to simulate the responses of different stakeholders during cybersecurity incidents. The paper outlines the requirements necessary for conducting dynamic probabilistic risk assessment under such threats, describes the design and implementation of these modules, and elaborates on the simulation algorithms used. The integration of these modules with mature power grid system simulators enables the framework to effectively replicate the spread and impact of diverse cyberattacks targeting electric grid systems. Additionally, the flexibility of the framework allows for easy reconfiguration and adaptation of module connections to examine different system topologies and configurations. The functionality and efficacy of the framework have been demonstrated using an IEEE 14-bus system in a case study.