Predicting the invasion pathway of balanus perforatus in Korean seawaters

Abstract

The European Common Barnacle Balanus perforatus Brugiére (Crustacea, Cirripedia) has been introduced into the east coast of Korea, presumably via the ballast water of ships. The species has since been spreading along both the northern and southern coast to the east, most likely due to alongshore currents. We predicted the potential range expansion of Balanus perforatus in Korean waters using Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP), an environmental niche modeling technique. The results show that much of the southern coastal waters of Korea could be colonized by the spread of the nonindigenous species, but that the west coast is unlikely to be invaded. More sampling on the west coast would enhance the predictability of the model. To our knowledge, this is the first report of its kind for predicting marine nonindigenous species in Korean waters using GARP modeling.