Impacts of IOD, ENSO and ENSO Modoki on the Australian winter wheat yields in recent decades

Abstract

Impacts of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), two different types of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki, on the year-to-year winter wheat yield variations in Australia have been investigated. It is found that IOD plays a dominant role in the recent three decades; the wheat yield is reduced (increased) by 28.4% (12.8%) in the positive (negative) IOD years. Although the canonical ENSO appears to be responsible for the wheat yield variations, its influences are largely counted by IOD owing to their frequent co-occurrence. In contrast, the ENSO Modoki may have its distinct impacts on the wheat yield variations, but they are much smaller compared to those of IOD. Both the observed April-May and the predicted September-November IOD indices by the SINTEX-F ocean-atmosphere coupled model initialized on April 1st just before the sowing season explain ∼15% of the observed year-to-year wheat yield variances. The present study may lead to a possible scheme for predicting wheat yield variations in Australia in advance by use of simple climate mode indices.