EPU spillovers and sovereign CDS spreads: A cross-country study

Abstract

This paper examines the spillover effect of global economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads in a sample of 21 countries. We use a multivariate quantile model to measure EPU spillovers for each country and find that global EPU spillovers have a significant and positive effect on subsequent CDS spreads in both developed and emerging markets. The spillover effect is stronger in developed markets compared to emerging markets. The positive relationship between EPU spillovers and CDS spreads remain significant when controlling for various economic, financial, and political risk factors. Our results are robust to alternative measures of EPU spillovers and sovereign credit risk, across different forecast horizons, and to potential endogeneity resulting from omitted variables.