A model to estimate births averted due to IUCDs and sterilizations

Abstract

The computation of births averted due to a specific family planning programme requires special treatment instead of application of the usual population projection technique using conventional fertility rates. The reason for this is that adopters of a family planning method are a selective group from the general population with respect to a number of demographic and biological characteristics, including the initial susceptibility status at the time of adoption. In the present paper a matrix of annual birth probabilities specific to age at adoption of a method and duration since adoption is obtained. One matrix is presented for adopters of IUCD, another for salpingectomy, and a third for vasectomy. These matrices are used to obtain estimates of births averted for India due to IUCDs and sterilizations performed during 1956-69. The results are compared with those that could have been obtained by using the usual age-specific marital fertility rates under identical conditions, except for initial susceptibility. The entire work is programmed on a high speed electronic computer. © 1971 Population Association of America.