Analysis of Competitiveness and Factors Affecting the Export Volume of Indonesian Coffee Beans (HS Code 0901.11.10) to Japan for the Period 2008–2023

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the competitiveness and factors influencing the export volume of Indonesian Arabica coffee (HS Code 0901.11.10) to Japan during the 2008–2023 period. The methods used include the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) analysis to measure competitiveness and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to evaluate the effects of production, exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar, and international coffee prices on export volume. The findings indicate that Indonesian coffee has strong competitiveness in the Japanese market (RCA > 1). Coffee production has a positive and significant effect on export volume in both the short and long term. The exchange rate shows a significant negative impact in the long term but is insignificant in the short term. International coffee prices have a significant negative effect, reflecting Japan’s sensitivity to price changes. The ECM model reveals that short-term imbalances are significantly corrected within one period. Policy implications include enhancing coffee productivity, maintaining exchange rate stability, strengthening trade diplomacy aligned with quality standards, and diversifying export markets.