Performance evaluation of HEC-HMS hydrological model applied to the Tibagi river watershed in the State of Paraná – Brazil

Abstract

The present work performs statistical evaluations of the HEC-HMS hydrological model for the six sub-basins that form the Tibagi River watershed, located in the central-eastern region of the state of Paraná, Brazil. The physical characterization of the study area is developed by techniques of geographic information systems. The effective rainfall is estimated using the SCS curve number method, the baseflow is determined by a recession curve method, and hydrographs are simulated using the SCS unity hydrograph method. The simulated hydrographs are compared with measured outflow data of the six sub-basins for a selected period of 2017. The performance of the models is assessed using a validation criterion based on RSR, NSE e PBIAS statistical indexes. After input parameters calibration, the comparisons of the hydrographs show excellent agreement with measure data according to the classification adopted in the work. The simulated peak flows range from 3.3 to 8.6% when compared to the observed peak flows, indicating that the model can assist in the prediction of maximum discharges.