Multidimensional geriatric prognostic index, based on a geriatric assessment, for long-term survival in older adults in Korea

Abstract

The patient's survival estimate is important for clinical decision-making, especially in frail patients with multimorbidities. We aimed to develop a multidimensional geriatric prognosis index (GPI) for 3- and 5-year mortality in community-dwelling elderly and to validate the GPI in a separate hospital-based population. The GPI was constructed using data for 988 participants in the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging (KLoSHA) and cross-validated with 1109 patients who underwent a geriatric assessment at the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (SNUBH). The GPI, with a total possible score of 8, included age, gender, activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, comorbidities, mood, cognitive function, and nutritional status. During the 5-year observation period, 179 KLoSHA participants (18.1%) and 340 SNUBH patients (30.7%) died. The c-indices for 3- and 5-year mortality were 0.78 and 0.80, respectively, in the KLoSHA group and 0.73 and 0.80, respectively, in the SNUBH group. Positive linear trends were observed for GPI scores and both 3- and 5-year mortality in both groups. In conclusions, using common components of a geriatric assessment, the GPI can stratify the risk of 3- and 5-year mortality in Korean elderly people both in the community and hospital.