A hybrid scenario analysis for the selection of future greenhouse gas emissions reduction technologies in China's oil and gas industry

Abstract

Oil and gas provide approximately 22.7% of China's total primary energy, but simultaneously absorbs 5% of that same energy. Increasing energy demands attributed to rapid industrialization stand in contradiction to China's stringent policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission. The GHG emissions of China's oil and gas industry was 377 Mt CO 2-eq in 2010, which was approximately 2.5 times higher than those of EU 27. Emission intensity in China is also much higher than that in EU 27. Accordingly, this study adopts a hybrid scenario analysis model to estimate the potential of GHG emission reduction of different technologies and policies in China's oil and gas industry before 2030. The model was developed based upon a macroeconomic development model and a technology-based bottom-up system. The results indicate that GHG emissions will not peak before 2030 unless a strong reduction policy scenario (SP) is implemented. Technologies that can favor reduce GHG emissions were ranked through a cost-benefit analysis with results showing that, in the short term, integrated optimization of refining energy systems and torch optimizing with associated gas recovery should be promoted, while, after 2020, ‘advanced’ technologies including carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration in saline aquifers and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs, as well as CO 2 enhanced oil recovery can further reduce GHG emissions. However, significant improvements in R&D is a prerequisite for cost-effectively implementing these technologies.