A game of tariffs: is there demand for tariffs in Europe?

Abstract

In April 2025, the United States introduced sweeping tariffs on imports from the European Union and the United Kingdom, raising transatlantic tensions and prompting debate over Europe’s response. This study examines whether Europeans support domestic tariffs, either as protectionist or retaliatory measures. While polls suggest strong backing for retaliatory tariffs against the US, such attitudes may reflect patriotic or emotional reactions. To test preferences for tariff policies in a more realistic setting, we conducted two pre-registered conjoint experiments: a government-preference experiment in Germany and a candidate-choice experiment in the United Kingdom. In these experiments, tariff proposals appeared alongside other policies, mirroring multidimensional political landscapes. Contrary to expectations, Europeans consistently rejected tariffs in favor of alternative economic policies regardless of whether framed as protectionist, funding green initiatives, or responding to US actions. This absence of support is observed across social groups and cannot be explained by pre-existing attitudes toward the United States or President Trump. Our findings suggest that demand for protectionism is weaker than direct polling implies, and that public appetite for tariff measures is lower than early surveys suggested. As global trade tensions escalate, understanding public demand is essential for designing trade policies that are both effective and democratically grounded.