Development of Compartmental Mathematical Model of Disease Transmission of Basal Stem Rot in Oil Palm Plantation

Abstract

The mathematical modelling is one of the major research areas for mathematician and biologist in understanding the dynamics of transmissible infections. There might also be a mathematical model used to research the dynamics of plant disease and estimate the number of cases of outbreaks. In this research, we developed the compartmental mathematical model of the dynamical spread of transmission of plant disease with reference to basal stem rot (BSR) disease in oil palm plantation. The dynamics of the BSR disease were studied by a prone-contagious-sustained (PCS) compartmental mathematical model involving ordinary differential equations for three classes of hosts; prone, contagious and sustained. The equilibrium points and epidemic threshold conditions were analytically determined and numerical simulations were analyzed to support analytical results. From the numerical results, the solutions converge to each equilibrium state and PCS model simulation indicated that BSR disease has not become endemic. In particular, the threshold parameters that summarize the dynamics of the system will help to choose strategies for crop protection.