Using Statistics to Quantify and Communicate Uncertainty During Volcanic Crises

Abstract

For decades, and especially in recent years, there has been an increasing amount of research using statistical modelling to produce volcanic forecasts, so that people could make better decisions. This research aims to add confidence by arming users with quantitative summaries of the chaos and uncertainty of extreme situations, in the form of probabilities—that is to say the measure of the likeliness that an event will occur.