Approaches to a Dilemma During the Pandemic: Sequential Successes and Simultaneous Successes

Abstract

Since the breakout of the COVID-19 pandemic, state and local governments have adjusted their decisions and policies to balance public health measures and economic measures. Many states put stay-at-home orders in place to control the spread of the virus, and economic measures fluctuated substantially According to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the gross domestic product dropped about 5% in the first quarter of 2020 when the pandemic started, dropped another 30% in the second quarter of 2020 when stay-at-home orders went into effect, increased about 35% in the third quarter of 2020 when stay-at-home orders were lifted--and then the second wave of the pandemic hit the nation. A dilemma can be viewed from a probabilistic perspective. Suppose there are two outcomes of interest, where the probability of success of one outcome is increasing with respect to the level of restriction and of the other outcome is decreasing.