Predicting the probability of Mount Merapi eruption using Bayesian Event Tree-Eruption Forecasting

Abstract

Mount Merapi is one of the active volcanoes in Indonesia that had varied eruption periods from two to eight years. Due to the density of the population living around the slopes of Mount Merapi, its eruptions caused high number of victims. In order to avoid high number of victims, the disaster management should be improved. Disaster management consist of four phases i.e. mitigation, preparedness, response and reconstruction. In disaster mitigation phase, prediction of the Merapi unrest probability is needed. This paper focus on how to predict the probability of Merapi unrest based on volcano-logical information by using Bayesian Event Tree. Bayesian Event Tree (BET) is a probabilistic model that merges all kinds of volcano-logical information to obtain probability of any relevant volcanic event. The result showed that the probability of Merapi unrest is 0,822. In the next eruption, it has predicted that the volcanic explosivity index (VEI) 2 was biggest chance with the probability of 0,549. It showed that the eruption will take place in the main crater of Merapi with the probability of 0,938.