A Hybrid Model to Quantify the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Godavari Basin, India

Abstract

A hybrid model incorporating the econometric and programming models was developed to quantify the impact of climate change on agriculture in Godavari basin, India. The Just and Pope production function was used to estimate the mean yield of crops and the variance associated with the mean yield and using the estimated yield, the multiple goal programming model was used to optimize the land and water use under mid and end century climate change scenarios. The results indicated that rice production will reduce during mid and end-century periods by 16% and 36% respectively and by incorporating the water and labour saving technologies in the crop production, the reduction in rice production will be eliminated during mid-century and it will be only 19% during end-century period. The overall water saving will be about 20% due to the adoption of these technologies. Technology up-scaling programs are suggested. Areas for future research are also indicated.