The application of vector autoregressive integrated with exogenous variable to model the relationship between covid-19 positive numbers with population growth rate

Abstract

The Vector Autoregressive Integrated with Exogenous Variable (VARIX) model can be used to examine the relationship between covid-19 positive case numbers (as endogenous variables) and population growth rate (as exogenous variables) while predicting covid-19 positive case numbers. In this paper, we apply the VARIX model to covid-19 phenomena in two regencies/cities in West Java Province, Bandung and Purwakarta. The results of the analysis show that the VARIX model is a suitable model used to describe the intended relationship. The VARIX model has a good forecasting ability characterized by a relatively small MAPE value. The exogenous variables show positive results, so it can be concluded that the positive covid-19 numbers in Bandung City and Purwakarta Regency have a positive correlation with the population growth rate in West Java Province.