Uppermost global tree elevations are primarily limited by low temperature or insufficient moisture

Abstract

The impact of anthropogenic global warming has induced significant upward dispersal of trees to higher elevations at alpine treelines. Assessing vertical deviation from current uppermost tree distributions to potential treeline positions is crucial for understanding ecosystem responses to evolving global climate. However, due to data resolution constraints and research scale limitation, comprehending the global pattern of alpine treeline elevations and driving factors remains challenging. This study constructed a comprehensive quasi-observational dataset of uppermost tree distribution across global mountains using Google Earth imagery. Validating the isotherm of mean growing-season air temperature at 6.6 ± 0.3°C as the global indicator of thermal treeline, we found that around two-thirds of uppermost tree distribution records significantly deviated from it. Drought conditions constitute the primary driver in 51% of cases, followed by mountain elevation effect which indicates surface heat (27%). Our analyses underscore the multifaceted determinants of global patterns of alpine treeline, explaining divergent treeline responses to climate warming. Moisture, along with temperature and disturbance, plays the most fundamental roles in understanding global variation of alpine treeline elevation and forecasting alpine treeline response to ongoing global warming.