Should we make predictions based on social simulations?

Abstract

The general feeling is that no predictions can be made based on agent-based social simulations. The outcomes of social simulations are based on the behaviors of individuals and their interactions. Behavioral models are always incomplete and often, also incorrect with respect to real behavior and thus the outcomes of agent-based social simulations cannot be trusted as predictions. In this article, we argue that behavioral models do not have to be valid in all respects, but only in the essential aspects in order to be able to make useful predictions. Based on some case studies on the effectiveness of restrictions during the COVID-19 crisis, we show that what are essential aspects of a behavioral model that need to be valid depends on the specific situation that is simulated. The predictions that were needed for the COVID-19 crisis were made with an agent-based social simulation framework using a behavioral model based on needs. The predictions could indicate the relative increase or decrease of COVID-19 infections due to the introduction of a new restriction. It shows that useful predictions can be made based on social simulations, but that we have to be careful on what type of predictions to make.