From maps to mandates: Multitemporal vegetation cover analysis as a tool to evaluate environmental judicial decisions

Abstract

This study examines the use of multitemporal vegetation cover analysis as a tool to assess the ecological effectiveness of judicial decisions that recognize the rights of nature, using Colombia's 2016 T-622 decision on the Atrato River as a case study. We used satellite data from MapBiomas and generalized additive models (GAMs) to evaluate changes in 10 vegetation cover types from 2006 to 2023 across collective territories governed by Afro-Colombian community councils and Indigenous reservations. Results revealed a sustained loss of natural cover, particularly in community councils, driven by expanding mining and infrastructure, while Indigenous reservations experienced more limited transformations. We identified distinct patterns of change linked to historical, political and social factors such as armed conflict, extractive concessions without prior consultation and differing governance systems. Despite the legal recognition of the river as a rights-bearing entity, territorial impacts persist, underscoring the need to incorporate ecological indicators into judicial decisions and strengthen monitoring frameworks. Our findings demonstrate that vegetation cover analysis, when properly contextualized, can provide critical evidence to evaluate the material effectiveness of judicial decisions in biocultural territories. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.