Stochastic unit commitment based on multi-scenario tree method considering uncertainty

Abstract

With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, it is difficult to schedule unit commitment (UC) in a power system because of the uncertainty associated with various factors. In this paper, a new solution procedure based on a multi-scenario tree method (MSTM) is presented and applied to the proposed stochastic UC problem. In this process, the initial input data of load and wind power are modeled as different levels using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The load and wind scenarios are generated using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) that considers forecasting errors. These multiple scenarios are applied in the MSTM for solving the stochastic UC problem, including not only the load and wind power uncertainties, but also sudden outages of the thermal unit. When the UC problem has been formulated, the simulation is conducted for 24-h period by using the short-term UC model, and the operating costs and additional reserve requirements are thus obtained. The effectiveness of the proposed solution approach is demonstrated through a case study based on a modified IEEE-118 bus test system.