Integrating Renewable Energy into Nigeria’s Energy Supply Mix

Abstract

In this paper, simulat ion model for Nigeria’s energy system is developed using EnergyPLAN simulat ion tool to st udy the struct ure of the present energy system and explore alternat ive fut ure scenarios based on renewable energy sources. First, the 2017 reference scenario was developed and validated to reflect Nigeria’s energy supply and consumpt ion in 2017. Two other fut ure scenarios were then developed; the 2030 REMP scenario to show a pathway to achieving the Renewable Energy Master Plan target of increasing the supply of renewable electricit y by 36% of the total electricit y generat ion by 2030; and the 2050 RE scenario which seeks to increase the share of renewable energy by >70% of the total electricit y generat ion and introduces the concept of electric vehicles and the use of biofuel in the transport sector. Both the 2030 REMP and the 2050 RE scenarios employed the Nat ional Energy Master Plan 7% reference growth scenario for all sectors using 2017 as the base year. The st udy shows that with the abundance of renewable energy sources in Nigeria, it is possible to develop an energy system that is sorely dependent on renewable energy. The 2030 REMP shows that the shift from fossil fuel power plant to renewable energy for electricit y generat ion results in an increase in the share of renewable energy in electricit y product ion from 20.2% in 2017 to 37.88% in 2030 while the 2050 RE shows that the share can go up to 71.20% if proper policies and infrastruct ures are put in place.