From rural exodus to repopulation in Mexico's Mixteca Alta? Analyzing differential trends

Abstract

This paper analyzes differential trends in rural depopulation and repopulation in nine municipalities of Mexico's Mixteca Alta region, in the southern state of Oaxaca, based on census data and interviews carried out in 2019. From 1950 to 2000, the study area experienced a substantial loss of population, linked essentially to out-migration to Mexico City. However, from 2000 to 2020, four of the municipalities regained population, while the remaining five continued losing residents. This repopulation is explained by a declining but still positive natural population growth combined with less out-migration and slightly more in-migration, linked to growing return migration. However, in-migration is too small to meaningfully explain the transition from massive depopulation to repopulation, meaning that concepts such as counterurbanization and rurbanization are not easily transposed onto the study area, as they centre their attention on the in-migration of former urban dwellers. The paper thus highlights the importance of population retention—explained by local tertiarization, the possibility of commuting to nearby small cities, and the weakening of traditional pull factors—as key to understanding rural repopulation in the study area.