Towards an atmosphere more favourable to firestorm development in Europe

Abstract

Deep pyroconvection associated with the development of firestorms, can significantly alter wildfire spread, causing severe socioeconomic and environmental impacts, and even posing a threat to human's lives. However, the limited number of observations hinders our understanding of this type of events. Here, we identify the environmental conditions that favour firestorm development using a coupled fire-atmosphere numerical model. From climate model projections for the 21st century, we show that the number of days with deep pyroconvection risk will increase significantly in southern Europe, especially in the western Mediterranean region, where it will go from between 10 and 20 days per year at present to between 30 and 50 days per year by the end of the century. Our results also suggest fuel reduction as an effective landscape management strategy to mitigate firestorm risks in the future.