A model for the space-time spread of pine shoot moth

Abstract

We develop a diffusion-type model for the space-time spread of the pine shootmoth in the south of Chile. The model is stated as a discrete time evolution with non-overlapping generations and combines a drift term determined by the dominant winds with a filter term that accounts for the fact that the moth is specific to pine trees. We fit the model using the captures on pheromone traps on the two consecutive seasons 1991-1992 as well as the observed average spread of the plague during the period 1984-1999.