ARFIMA Reference Forecasts for Worldwide CO2 Emissions and the Need for Large and Frontloaded Decarbonization Policies

Abstract

We provide reference forecasts for worldwide CO2 emissions from fuel fossil combustion and cement production based on an ARFIMA approach. Our projections suggest that for the IPCC goals to be achieved it is necessary to reduce emissions by 57.4% and 97.4% of 2010 emissions by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Furthermore, the bulk of these efforts have to take place by 2030. Finally, the presence in the data of long memory suggests that policies must be persistent to ensure permanent reductions in emissions. These results add to the sense of urgency in dealing with the issue of decarbonization.