Systematic quantification of uncertainties for evaluated prompt fission neutron spectra and multiplicities

Abstract

Uncertainties associated with evaluated average prompt fission neutron spectra and multiplicities are obtained for a suite of actinides in the Los Alamos model formalism. Systematics for the model input parameters are taken from the literature and used as prior values in a Bayesian updating procedure. Posterior systematics as well as associated posterior uncertainties are inferred. In addition, cross-isotope correlations are evaluated for the first time. The quantification of uncertainties associated with advanced Monte Carlo Hauser-Feshbach calculations of prompt fission neutron spectra is also discussed. © Owned by the authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2012.