Impacts on CO2 emission allowance prices in China: A quantile regression analysis of the Shanghai emission trading scheme

Abstract

A pilot regional carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) has been implemented in China for more than two years. An investigation into the impacts of different factors on carbon dioxide (CO2) emission allowance prices provides guidance for price-making in 2017 when the nation-wide ETS of China will be established. This paper adopts a quantile regression approach to estimate the impacts of different factors in Shanghai emission trading scheme (SH-ETS), namely, economic growth, energy prices and temperature. The empirical analysis shows that: (i) the economic growth in Shanghai leads to a drop in the carbon allowance prices; (ii) the oil price has a slightly positive effect on the allowance prices regardless of the ordinary least squares (OLS) or quantile regression method; (iii) a long-run negative relationship exists between the coal price and the Shanghai emission allowances (SHEA) prices, but a positive interaction under different quantiles, especially the 25%-50% quantiles; (iv) temperature has a significantly positive effect at the 20%-30% quantiles and a conspicuous negative impact at the right tail of the allowances prices..