Influential factors of national and regional CO2 emission in China based on combined model of DPSIR and PLS-SEM

Abstract

In China, carbon emission mitigation is a considerable challenge due to the massive quantity of CO2 emissions, which has been relentlessly growing for a long time. In this study, the Driving-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) method is used to identify the influential factors of China's carbon emissions. This empirical research, which is based on provincial panel data and the structural equation model through the partial least squares approach, reveals the path relationships between carbon emissions and their influential factors. The estimation comprehensively covers 35 indicators during the period of 1996–2015. Empirical results show that the driving factor, pressure, state and response on the national level significantly impact carbon emissions. From a regional perspective, driving factor has significant impact in the northeast, northwest, southwest and south of China, and pressure factor exerts effect in the northeast, north, east, northwest, southwest and central south of China. The state factor plays a role in the southwest, central and south. As for response factor, the northeast, east, northwest and southwest are affected regions. This study provides a comprehensive and accurate indicator estimation framework for carbon emission. The identified influential factors can guide Chinese governments at all levels in scientifically formulating policies to effectively reduce carbon emission.