Statistical and neural network assessment of the climatology of fog and mist at Pula Airport in Croatia

Abstract

A study was conducted on the climatological characteristics of fog and mist at Pula Airport in the northeastern Adriatic, using statistical and machine learning approaches. The study utilized meteorological data from Pula Airport, along with satellite sea surface temperature (SST) data from two coastal areas west and east of the airport, to gain insights into the influence of sea temperature on fog formation. To identify weather patterns associated with the occurrence of fog and mist, wind and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data from the fifth-generation reanalysis (ERA5) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) were analyzed using Growing Neural Gas (GNG), a machine learning algorithm. A notable finding was a declining trend in the frequency of fog and mist at the airport, which can be linked to the results of the GNG analysis of the ERA5 data. This analysis showed a decrease in synoptic patterns favorable for fog and mist. Fog occurs mainly between October and March and is primarily associated with weak westerly and northwesterly winds. Additionally, fog is more likely to occur when the sea surface temperature is higher than the air temperature. Mist has similar characteristics to fog, although it is more likely to occur with easterly winds.