Drivers of vulnerability to climate change in the southernmost region of Bahia (Brazil)

Abstract

The region that comprises the Atlantic Forest is one of the most degraded areas of the planet, being especially vulnerable in climate change scenarios, which project a mean temperature increase between 2ºC and 3ºC by 2070 for the Brazilian Northeast region. This article aims to analyze the main drivers of socio-environmental vulnerability in the Atlantic Forest region that comprises the southernmost identity territory of Bahia (Brazil) and their potential consequences for coping with climate change. To this end, historical data on land use and occupation was spatialized and evaluated, along with socioeconomic indicators and legal environmental adequacy in the municipalities that make up this territory. The results indicate four structural drivers that generate regional vulnerabilities: the persistence of deforestation; the continuous expansion of monoculture areas; the maintenance of low levels of well-being of the population; as well as a picture of legal environmental liabilities. Based on the analysis of these data, strategies are proposed to increase the adaptive capacity to climate change in this region, especially considering the role of municipalities as a central actor in the implementation of adaptation actions by incorporating into their existing planning instruments indicators and strategies that address the multiple current challenges, especially when the federal government seems to be neglecting climate change.La región que comprende la Mata Atlántica es una de las zonas más degradadas del planeta, siendo especialmente vulnerable en escenarios de cambio climático. Este artículo tiene como objetivo analizar los principales vectores de vulnerabilidad socio-ambiental en la región de la Mata Atlántica que comprende el territorio identitario en el extremo sur de Bahía (Brasil) y sus potenciales consecuencias para hacer frente al cambio climático. Para ello, se espacializaron y analizaron los datos históricos de uso y ocupación del suelo, los indicadores socioeconómicos y la adecuación legal ambiental en los 13 municipios que componen este territorio. Los resultados indican cuatro factores estructurales que han generado vulnerabilidades regionales: la persistencia de la deforestación; la continua expansión de las áreas de monocultivo; el mantenimiento de bajos niveles de bienestar de la población; además de un marco de pasivos ambientales legales. A partir del análisis de estos datos, se proponen estrategias para aumentar la capacidad de adaptación al cambio climático en esta región, especialmente considerando el papel de los municipios como actor central en la implementación de acciones de adaptación.The region that comprises the Atlantic Forest is one of the most degraded areas of the planet, being especially vulnerable in climate change scenarios, which project a mean temperature increase between 2ºC and 3ºC by 2070 for the Brazilian Northeast region. This article aims to analyze the main drivers of socio-environmental vulnerability in the Atlantic Forest region that comprises the southernmost identity territory of Bahia (Brazil) and their potential consequences for coping with climate change. To this end, historical data on land use and occupation was spatialized and evaluated, along with socioeconomic indicators and legal environmental adequacy in the municipalities that make up this territory. The results indicate four structural drivers that generate regional vulnerabilities: the persistence of deforestation; the continuous expansion of monoculture areas; the maintenance of low levels of well-being of the population; as well as a picture of legal environmental liabilities. Based on the analysis of these data, strategies are proposed to increase the adaptive capacity to climate change in this region, especially considering the role of municipalities as a central actor in the implementation of adaptation actions by incorporating into their existing planning instruments indicators and strategies that address the multiple current challenges, especially when the federal government seems to be neglecting climate change.