Understanding the Effects of Autonomous Vehicles on Urban Form

Abstract

Predicting the future impact of Autonomous Vehicles on infrastructure and urban form is critical for decision makers at all levels of government. The Autonomous Vehicle (AV) is a disruptive technology in transportation and its impact could resonate through all levels of society and government. The impact on infrastructure spending and decisions is one of the greatest reasons for understanding the potential outcomes of the technology but, in addition, the potential of the technology to play a positive role for the less advantaged members of society is large if there is proper direction of the technology as it is implemented. Auto makers view the technology as something which offers their customers a higher level of convenience and safety and, as such, they are in heated competition to develop this technology. In order to understand and speculate on the systemic urban impact of this nascent transportation technology, a comprehensive methodology is required. This paper will present, substantiate and describe such methodology. We base our proposal on existing future envisioning techniques for business decision making, precedent discussions on the impact of AVs, and on visionary traditions of architectural and urban design. We do not intend a precise method for future prediction, but rather a useful and robust tool that can be used by decision makers to take better informed decision on maximizing benefits and mitigating problems of new transportation technologies with regard to the quality of urban environments.