Predicted range shifts of alien tree species in Europe

Abstract

Alien tree species are considered both a threat to nature conservation and a base for forest management. We compiled species occurrences from biodiversity databases, forest inventories, and literature data. We modeled the availability of potential niches using the MaxEnt method and bioclimatic variables for current conditions, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080 periods. We used four climate scenarios: SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP485. The results confirm our hypotheses that, (i) coniferous species will contract, and deciduous trees will expand their climatic niche, (ii) a significant part of the areas where the studied species currently occur will be outside their climatic optimum in the coming decades; (iii) changes in the climatic optimum distribution will be greater in the 2041–2060 period than in 2061–2080. These predicted shifts are relevant for evidence-based management in sites already occupied by the studied alien trees. Our results are also relevant to the development of prevention and early detection measures in areas predicted to become climatically suitable for the studied species.