New markets forecast and dynamic production redesign through stochastic simulation

Abstract

In this paper the authors analyse a double problem: the sales forecast in new foreign markets in the next five years by an Italian SME and the consequent dynamic production system redesign having the goal to maximize the Gross Margin. Due to the high uncertainty of the variables involved, the authors approached the study in stochastic regime. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo and Discrete Event Simulation, on new Pure Experimental Error control techniques and on Response Surface Methodology Designs as the Two Level Factorial Design and the Central Composite Design.