Analyzing Reliability of CGS Station by Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMC)

Abstract

Improving the system's reliability is one way to achieve a secure system. City Gas Station (CGS) has a key role in the timely and safe supply of Natural gas (NG) to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. With complexities inherent in systems, having a proper and all-embracing model of the entirety of a system is not readily possible. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model is regarded as a great help in communicating, comparing, and integrating partial system models. In this study, we have exploited CTMC for reliability analysis in CGS stations. The CTMC model can solve both time-dependent and stationary state probabilities. Therefore, it can potentially develop the state enumeration method into a sequential one. Implementing this procedure leads to identifying critical components and failure probability, eventually enhancing the station's reliability. Additionally, some suggestions are presented for optimizing the performance of the station.