An assessment of forest loss and its drivers in protected areas on the Copperbelt province of Zambia: 1972–2016

Abstract

In sub-Saharan Africa, protected areas provide a platform for conserving biodiversity. However, these areas are facing massive pressure due to deforestation, and information on forest dynamics and factors driving the changes in protected areas is generally lacking. This study has two objectives: (1) to assess forest cover changes that have occurred between 1972 and 2016 in Copperbelt Province’s protected areas, and (2) understand the drivers of forest cover changes. The study used thematic land cover maps for six selected years, which were classified using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. We also applied a Classification Tree (CT) approach to assess the drivers of forest cover changes using R statistical software. The findings showed that forest cover in protected areas has been characterised by massive deforestation due to various factors. Between 1972 and 2016, primary and secondary forests showed a decrease of 2,226.43 km2 (11.06%) and an increase of 1,082.93 km2 (4.05%), respectively. The major factors driving forest changes include the levels of precipitation, human population density, elevation, distance from roads, towns and rivers. This study presents consistent information for long-term forest monitoring in protected areas, and informs decision-makers on the levels of deforestation and their drivers for effective forest management.