Proxy data reconstructions of the Storglaciären (Sweden) mass-balance record back to AD 1500 on annual to decadal timescales

Abstract

Regional summer temperatures (Ts), derived from tree rings, and large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)) were used to infer the mass balance of Storglaciären, Sweden, on annual and decadal timescales back to AD 1500. Winter (January-March) NAO was not a suitable proxy for interannual winter balance variability, but seemed to have substantial influence on decadal timescales. Ts were highly correlated to the summer balance, but also to the annual net balance. This association was much weaker on decadal timescales, mainly because of the increased maritime climate around 1980. Storglaciären net balance was modelled back to AD 1500 with annual resolution (using Ts as a predictor), and AD 1664 with decadal resolution (using Ts and NAO as predictors). Both reconstructions displayed similar evolution. Negative mass balances dominated most of the 16th century, followed by a longer period of predominantly positive mass-balance years culminating in about 1750. This is in agreement with previous suggestions of Holocene maximum expansion of Storglaciären at that time. Subsequently, the mass balance is highly variable, with an increased number of negative years. The build-up to the well-documented early-20th-century advance is evident as mass balance becomes progressively more positive towards the early 20th century.