Predictors of early mortality after lung transplantation for idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension

Abstract

Lung transplantation remains an important therapeutic option for idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH), yet short-term survival is the poorest among the major diagnostic categories. We sought to develop a prediction model for 90-day mortality using the United Network for Organ Sharing database for adults with IPAH transplanted between 2005 and 2021. Variables with a p value ≤ 0.1 on univariate testing were included in multivariable analysis to derive the best subset model. The cohort comprised 693 subjects, of whom 71 died (10.2%) within 90 days of transplant. Significant independent predictors of early mortality were: extracorporeal circulatory support and/or mechanical ventilation at transplant (OR: 3; CI: 1.4–5), pulmonary artery diastolic pressure (OR: 1.3 per 10 mmHg; CI: 1.07–1.56), forced expiratory volume in the first second percent predicted (OR: 0.8 per 10%; CI: 0.7–0.94), recipient total bilirubin >2 mg/dL (OR: 3; CI: 1.4–7.2) and ischemic time >6 h (OR: 1.7, CI: 1.01–2.86). The predictive model was able to distinguish 25% of the cohort with a mortality of ≥20% from 49% with a mortality of ≤5%. We conclude that recipient variables associated with increasing severity of pulmonary vascular disease, including pretransplant advanced life support, and prolonged ischemic time are important risk factors for 90-day mortality after lung transplant for IPAH.