Potential Economic Impacts of Maple Syrup Production in Kentucky, United States: A CGE Analysis for Sustainable Rural Development

Abstract

Maple syrup production has the potential to promote sustainable rural economic development in regions with suitable forest and climate conditions. Kentucky emerges as a promising candidate due to its extensive maple tree inventory and favorable seasonal patterns. However, the broader economy-wide implications of developing a maple syrup industry in the state remain underexplored. To fill this knowledge gap, this study employs a customized static single-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling approach for Kentucky under nine scenarios based on production capacities and potential levels. The results consistently show positive impacts on net household income, social welfare (measured by equivalent variation), government revenues, and state GDP across all scenarios. Medium production capacities generate the most balanced and efficient outcomes, while high-potential scenarios, especially under small and large scales produce the largest absolute gains. These results underscore the viability of maple syrup production as an economic development strategy and highlight the role of production scale in maximizing benefits. Furthermore, expanding maple syrup production can enhance rural livelihoods by diversifying forest-based income and promoting long-term stewardship. As a non-timber forest product, maple syrup tapping provides economic incentives to maintain healthy forests, strengthening rural sustainability and resilience. Our findings indicate that developing this industry beyond traditional regions can generate meaningful economic benefits while encouraging sustainable resource use when appropriately scaled and managed.