LIMIARES DE TEMPERATURA DE SUPERFÍCIE E PLUVIOSIDADE COMO INDICADOR DE RISCO DE PROLIFERAÇÃO DE Aedes aegypti NO MUNICÍPIO DE SÃO PAULO

Abstract

Aedes aegypti is a vector of diseases of epidemic character in Brazil, such as dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and zika. Some strategies have been adopt to contain the dispersion this mosquito, however, not was yet achieve the desired result. The identification of meteorological conditions such as temperature and precipitation at fine scales, along with other actions, may contribute to the control of Aedes aegypti proliferation. In this sense, a seven - year temporal analysis of the maximum and minimum values of surface temperature and accumulated precipitation associated to the presence of Aedes aegypti, it was made for each district of the city. For the abstraction of these values, remote sensing products were correlated with autochthonous cases of dengue. Thresholds found for the entire municipality showed 55% accuracy, 35% error, and 10% were inconclusive due to lack of temperature data. However, when analyzed individually, some districts reached an accuracy greater than 70%. This study presents for the first time estimates of thresholds fine-scale meteorological variables associated with the presence in this mosquito and makes it possible to identify potential risk areas for the proliferation of Aedes aegypti a week in advance.  Aedes aegypti is a vector of diseases of epidemic character in Brazil, such as dengue, urban yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika. Some strategies have been adopt to contain the dispersion this mosquito, however, not was yet achieve the desired result. The identification of meteorological conditions such as surface temperature and rainfall at fine scales, along with other actions, may contribute to the control of Aedes aegypti proliferation. In this sense, a seven - year temporal analysis of the maximum and minimum values of surface temperature and accumulated precipitation associated to the presence of Aedes aegypti, it was made for each district of the city. For the abstraction of these values, remote sensing products were correlated with autochthonous cases of dengue. Thresholds found for the entire municipality showed 55% accuracy, 35% error, and 10% were inconclusive due to lack of temperature data. However, when analyzed individually, some districts reached an accuracy greater than 70%. This study presents for the first time estimates of thresholds fine-scale meteorological variables associated with the presence in this mosquito and makes it possible to identify potential risk areas for the proliferation of Aedes aegypti a week in advance.  O Aedes aegypti é um vetor de agentes de doenças que tem caráter epidêmico como dengue, febre amarela urbana, chikungunya e Zika. Algumas estratégias têm sido adotadas para conter a dispersão desse mosquito, entretanto, ainda não foi alcançado o resultado desejado. A identificação de condições meteorológicas como temperatura de superfície e precipitação pluviométrica em escalas finas, junto com outras ações, pode contribuir para o controle da proliferação do A.aegypti. Neste sentido, foi realizada uma análise temporal de sete anos do valor máximo e mínimo da temperatura de superfície e precipitação pluviométrica acumulada associado à presença de A.aegypti para cada distrito da cidade de São Paulo. Para abstração desses valores, foram correlacionados produtos de sensoriamento remoto com casos autóctones de dengue. Os limiares encontrados para todo o município mostraram 55% de precisão, 35% de erro e 10% foram inconclusivos devido à falta de dados de satélite por cobertura de núvens. No entanto, quando analisados ​​individualmente alguns distritos atingiram uma precisão superior a 70%. Este estudo apresenta pela primeira vez estimativas de limiares de variáveis meteorológicas em escala fina associadas à presença deste mosquito e torna possível identificar potenciais áreas de risco para a proliferação do A.aegypti com uma semana de antecedência.